Analysts across the globe see an important future for blockchain in myriad organizations and use cases. On top of Juniper Research, which we mentioned earlier and several others, also IDC states that blockchain services are poised to become the foundation for digital trust at scale IDC stated end 2017. You could already see that much in the infographic above of course.
According to IDC’s 2018 IT industry forecasts, fully entitled “IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2018 Predictions“, revealed in a webcast with a press release on October 31st, 2017, by 2021 at least 25 percent of the G2000 would use blockchain services with exactly that purpose. When looking at some industries and the data from IDC mainly global transaction banks, the manufacturing industry, retailers and healthcare organizations would be along the earliest movers to have blockchain networks in production (so no tests or proof of concept).
Blockchain networks in production by 2020: main industries
Below are the forecasts for the mentioned industries (note that IDC looks at 2020 here and not at 2021 as in the earlier mentioned prediction).
● Top global transactions banks: 25 percent with a blockchain network in production.
● Manufacturers and retailers together: a blockchain network in production by 2020 for close to 30 percent.
● Healthcare organizations: 20 percent of healthcare organizations with a blockchain network in production by 2020.
Another interesting finding, this time from IDC’s “FutureScape: Worldwide IoT 2018 Predictions” concerns blockchain and the Internet of Things, a topic we covered earlier.
Most of us look at blockchain as one of the ways to solve multiple IT data exchange and IoT monetization challenges, among others through using smart contracts. Well, IDC predicts that by 2020 up to 10 percent of pilot and production blockchain distributed ledgers will incorporate IoT sensors as you can read here or hear when you listen to the appropariate webcast in the IDC FutureScape 2018 series.
What does a business have to do in 2018 order to get ready for blockchain?
Although being a first mover doesn’t always mean being in the best position, with regards to the adoption of blockchain in business things could be different.
According to the research firm early adopters can establish very strong positions while organizations that are not participating in blockchains and the industry ecosystems they require, will encounter significant disadvantages with regards to, among others, speed and costs.
● Start by looking at all the blockchain consortiums and initiatives out there and see which could bring the benefits of blockchain within their specific industries, use cases and ecosystems.
● In the case there isn’t such an ecosystem and there is a case and benefit to do so, investigate the opportunity, which by definition obviously also means finding the right peers and partners that can help start one (or, less ambitious, join or start a blockchain network or a pilot).
● Companies that are slower in their digital transformation efforts, which really is the majority of organizations today, have to do their homework, start learning, experience the potential, talk with their peers and so forth in 2018. More importantly they need to develop use case scenarios for blockchain that make most sense for them. Those who are ahead in their digital transformation journey should put a blockchain strategy and plan and place in 2018 IDC states.
Blockchain 2018: forecasts and industries
In our article on blockchain in the EU and Western Europe we mentioned some data regarding the adoption of blockchain across several industries as per the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (research end 2017, see SlideShare at the bottom of this page).
The results as depicted below are part of the EU blockchain factsheet which was presented at the occasion of the EU Blockchain Observatory and Forum, covered in the article. However, the 2017 Global Blockchain Benchmarking Study of the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.
Sectors currently using DLTs according to the EU blockchain factsheet based upon Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance data. However, the authors came to this result by looking at the largest number of identified DLT use cases, whereby “132 blockchain use cases were grouped into industry segments that have been frequently mentioned in public discussions, reports and press releases”.
In the meantime IDC announced its inaugural Worldwide Semiannual Blockchain Spending Guide (January 24th, 2018) and a version for Western Europe as also mentioned in that same article which looks more into detail from the spending rather than identified DLT use case perspective.
According to IDC, global blockchain spending is expected to reach $2.1 billion in 2018 and total spending of $9.2 billion in 2021. In the scope of this section of industries and blockchain use cases, it’s interesting to note that, according to IDC, spending per industry for 2018 shows the following picture:
● The financial sector leads with blockchain spending of $754 million in 2018. Mainly the fast adoption in the banking industry is key here.
● The distribution and services sector ranks second with $510 million in 2018, with retail and professional services showing strong blockchain investment. 28
● The manufacturing and resources sector ranks third with $510 million in 2018. Here most blockchain investments in 2018 will happen in the discrete and process manufacturing industries.
As per usual there are geographical differences though. Looking at the different regions from a blockchain spending perspective the chart below shows the split and evolutions until 2021: the US leads, followed by Western Europe.
Blockchain spending per region according to IDC’s Worldwide Semiannual Blockchain Spending Guide (January 2018)
However, while in the US the distribution and services sector will account for most blockchain investment in Western Europe the financial services sector is the main driver. The latter is also the case in China (PRC) and the APeCJ region (Asia Pacific, excluding Japan). The fastest growers in blockchain spending globally are, respectively, professional services (85.8% CAGR), discrete manufacturing (84.3% CAGR), and the resource industries (83.9% CAGR).
